Crash Game Probability

Crash games feel like they have patterns: a run of low crashes seems to "build up" to a big one. The probabilities say otherwise. Here is how the crash point works in our free Crash simulator.

How the crash point is chosen

Before the multiplier starts rising, the game has already picked a random number between 0 and 1 and turned it into the crash point. In this simulator that conversion is crash point = 0.99 ÷ (1 − r), and 1 time in 100 the round simply ends at 1.00×.

That formula has a neat consequence: the chance that a round reaches at least a multiplier x is exactly 0.99 ÷ x.

What the numbers tell you

• About half of all rounds crash before 2×. The chance of reaching 2× is 49.5%.
• One round in three crashes before 1.5×. Reaching 1.5× happens 66% of the time.
• 10× happens about 1 round in 10, and 100× about 1 in 100.
• Every cash-out target returns 99% in the long run. A higher target does not have a better or worse edge, only a bigger swing.

Streaks do not predict anything

Each round is generated independently. Five crashes under 2× in a row sounds like a pattern, but it happens about 3% of the time (0.505⁵), so you will see it regularly over a few hundred rounds. The next round does not "owe" you a high multiplier, and a high multiplier does not make the next round more likely to be low.

Choosing a target

Because every target has the same expected return, the choice is about how you want results to feel. Low targets (1.2× to 1.5×) give frequent small wins and rare, painful losses. High targets (10× and up) give long dry spells and the occasional big payout. Try both in the free simulator with play money and watch the balance curve.

Crash probability FAQ